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Watches · WatchCharts market price · Dec 31 · San Francisco
30%chance
No change since openYES if below $165,000
Implied from the Yes/No pools after each bet.
The white-gold Nautilus 5811/1G, the 5711's successor, had a WatchCharts market price of $171,291 on Aug 3, 2026 (range $157,074–$185,508, 8.3% volatility). WatchCharts showed about $171,837 in September 2026. US retail is roughly $89.8K, and one full-set 2026 example was listed on Chrono24 at $207,660.
YES if the 'Market Price' on the WatchCharts overview page for Patek Philippe Nautilus 5811/1G is strictly below $165,000 at 12:00 PM PT on Dec 31, 2026. Use the most recent value displayed, even if its 'as of' date is up to 14 days before resolution. If WatchCharts is unreachable, use the median asking price of the 10 lowest-priced full-set 5811/1G-001 listings on Chrono24 at that time.
1 · AI resolver proposes
After Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 PM PT, the resolver agent reads the source, gathers evidence (links, quoted values, timestamps) and proposes Yes, No, or Void with its reasoning.
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Report an issue2 · Admin finalizes
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3 · Signed attestation
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