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Surge · SFO → JFK · Wed Nov 25, 2026 · San Francisco
40%chance
No change since openYES if above $450
Implied from the Yes/No pools after each bet.
Thanksgiving 2026 domestic round-trip fares were running nearly 13% above 2025 as of early August (Points Path via The Points Guy), and fares typically climb another 25–40% after Nov 10. Airline CEOs warned of higher holiday fares as jet fuel reached $4.28/gal, up 71% since the Iran war began. Off-peak, Kayak shows SFO–JFK round trips typically at $327–$576 and one-ways from about $187. No Thanksgiving-date nonstop quote could be verified at research time.
ADMIN-RESOLVED MARKET: Google Flights renders prices in JavaScript, so the oracle cannot read this page automatically — a human settles it. YES if, at 12:00 PM PT on Nov 18, 2026, the lowest price shown on the resolution-source URL (which already encodes one-way, nonstop, SFO→JFK, departing 2026-11-25) for a 1-adult economy fare, basic economy allowed, including taxes, is strictly above $450.00. The admin records a screenshot and the quoted figure with the resolution. Only nonstop flights into JFK count, not EWR or LGA. If Google Flights is unavailable, use the cheapest one-way nonstop SFO→JFK fare for that date on the Kayak route page https://www.kayak.com/flight-routes/San-Francisco-SFO/New-York-John-F-Kennedy-Intl-JFK, read at the same moment.
1 · AI resolver proposes
After Nov 18, 2026, 12:00 PM PT, the resolver agent reads the source, gathers evidence (links, quoted values, timestamps) and proposes Yes, No, or Void with its reasoning.
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