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Surge · Dreamforce · Moscone Center · Sep 15–17 · San Francisco
55%chance
No change since openYES if above $350/night
Implied from the Yes/No pools after each bet.
Dreamforce 2026 runs Sep 15–17 at Moscone Center and draws 40,000+ attendees; its official hotel block has sold out. Navan's analysis of 1,337 bookings during Dreamforce 2025 found the median nightly rate near Moscone jumped from $305 to $569 (+87%), with last-minute bookers paying $587. In 2025, even the Golden Gate Hotel ran $485, and a Fisherman's Wharf Marriott hit $1,400. This is a fast market that closes before the conference.
ADMIN-RESOLVED MARKET: Google Hotels renders prices in JavaScript, so the oracle cannot read this page automatically — a human settles it. YES if, at 12:00 PM PT on Sep 14, 2026, the resolution-source URL (which already encodes the search, check-in 2026-09-15 and check-out 2026-09-16) with the '3+ stars' filter applied, 2 adults, sorted by price, shows a cheapest nightly rate strictly above $350.00 for a hotel within 1.0 mile of Moscone Center, using the nightly price Google displays before taxes and fees. Hostels, private rooms/rentals and sold-out properties are excluded. The admin records a screenshot and the quoted figure with the resolution. If Google is unavailable, use the Kayak hotel search for the same dates and radius, read at the same moment.
1 · AI resolver proposes
After Sep 14, 2026, 12:00 PM PT, the resolver agent reads the source, gathers evidence (links, quoted values, timestamps) and proposes Yes, No, or Void with its reasoning.
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Report an issue2 · Admin finalizes
A human reviews the evidence and finalizes, overrides, or voids. Nothing pays out without this step, and you can file a dispute before it happens.
3 · Signed attestation
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