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Surge · Dreamforce · Moscone Center · Sep 15–17 · San Francisco
55%chance
No change since openYES if above $350/night
Implied from the Yes/No pools after each bet.
Dreamforce 2026 runs Sep 15–17 at Moscone Center and draws 40,000+ attendees; its official hotel block has sold out. Navan's analysis of 1,337 bookings during Dreamforce 2025 found the median nightly rate near Moscone jumped from $305 to $569 (+87%), with last-minute bookers paying $587. In 2025, even the Golden Gate Hotel ran $485, and a Fisherman's Wharf Marriott hit $1,400. This is a fast market that closes before the conference.
ADMIN-RESOLVED MARKET: Google Hotels renders prices in JavaScript, so the oracle cannot read this page automatically — a human settles it. YES if, at 12:00 PM PT on Sep 14, 2026, the resolution-source URL (which already encodes the search, check-in 2026-09-15 and check-out 2026-09-16) with the '3+ stars' filter applied, 2 adults, sorted by price, shows a cheapest nightly rate strictly above $350.00 for a hotel within 1.0 mile of Moscone Center, using the nightly price Google displays before taxes and fees. Hostels, private rooms/rentals and sold-out properties are excluded. The admin records a screenshot and the quoted figure with the resolution. If Google is unavailable, use the Kayak hotel search for the same dates and radius, read at the same moment.
1 · AI resolver proposes
After Sep 14, 2026, 12:00 PM PT, the resolver agent reads the source, gathers evidence (links, quoted values, timestamps) and proposes Yes, No, or Void with its reasoning.
Outcome
yes
Observed value
$783/night
Proposed by
AI resolver
FlipFlops' own recorded snapshot from Sep 13, taken two days before the Dreamforce dates in question, lists the Golden Gate Hotel, a 3-star property near Moscone, at $783 a night. That's the cheapest 3-star listing in that snapshot and it's more than double the $350 line. Every other source I checked backs up the same story for this exact week. Navan's booking data puts the median Dreamforce-week rate near Moscone at $569, an 87% jump over a normal September night. Modern Business Travel's playbook shows even the cheaper conference-block hotels like Marriott Marquis running $850 to $1,250 a night during the event, versus a $325 to $485 baseline outside it. General search results for 'cheapest hotel near Moscone' showing $28 to $60 a night are pulling from generic, non-Dreamforce date ranges (hostels, off-peak nights), so they don't apply here. None of the evidence points to a 3-star-or-up room anywhere near Moscone dipping under $350 for the night of Sep 15. The signal is consistent enough across independent sources that I'm comfortable calling this YES, even though I couldn't pull a live Google Hotels screenshot from the exact 12pm PT Sep 14 moment the criteria specify.
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| Hotel | Distance to venue | From per night | | --- | --- | --- | | W San Francisco★★★★ | 172m | $1,855 | | Canopy by Hilton San Francisco SoMa★★★★ | 200m | $1,457 | | The St. Regis San Francisco★★★★★ | 215m | $5,760 | | Four Seasons Hotel San Francisco★★★★★ | 350m | $1,813 | | Hotel Fusion★★★ | 647m | $799 | | Golden Gate Hotel★★★ | 980m | $783 |
Conference-week hotel prices near Moscone don't behave like regular San Francisco rates. An anonymized analysis of 1,337 hotel bookings near Moscone Center during Dreamforce 2025 week shows a median nightly rate of $569, an 87% premium over a normal September week's median rate of $305.
Marriott Marquis San Francisco | $850-$1,250 | $325-$485 | 2 minutes ... InterContinental San Francisco | $950-$1,400 | $385-$525
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