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Watches · WatchCharts market price · Dec 31 · San Francisco
30%chance
No change since openYES if above $50,000
Implied from the Yes/No pools after each bet.
The 41mm steel Royal Oak 15510ST is Audemars Piguet's most-traded reference. WatchCharts estimated its market value at $47,611 (model page labelled August 2026). Chrono24 asks run about $46K–$74.5K depending on dial, and blue and green dials command the top of the range. Boutique allocation remains tight.
YES if the 'Market Price' on the WatchCharts overview page for Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Self 15510ST (model level, all dials) is strictly above $50,000 at 12:00 PM PT on Dec 31, 2026. Use the most recent value displayed, even if its 'as of' date is up to 14 days before resolution. If WatchCharts is unreachable, use the median asking price of the 20 lowest-priced full-set 15510ST listings from US sellers on Chrono24 at that time.
1 · AI resolver proposes
After Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 PM PT, the resolver agent reads the source, gathers evidence (links, quoted values, timestamps) and proposes Yes, No, or Void with its reasoning.
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Report an issue2 · Admin finalizes
A human reviews the evidence and finalizes, overrides, or voids. Nothing pays out without this step, and you can file a dispute before it happens.
3 · Signed attestation
Finalizing signs an EIP-712 attestation over the market, outcome, observed value and evidence hash. Anyone can verify the signature in their browser against our published attester address.