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Surge · AAA California diesel · Oct 31 · San Francisco
30%chance
No change since openYES if above $8.50/gal
Implied from the Yes/No pools after each bet.
AAA's California average diesel price was $7.9827 on Sep 11, 2026, up from $7.9114 a day earlier and against a $5.98 national average. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan flagged six California stations, including in Santa Clara and San Jose, selling diesel at $9.999, the maximum the pumps can display. Elevated oil prices tied to renewed fighting in Iran are the driver.
YES if AAA's California 'Current Avg.' diesel price, as shown at 12:00 PM PT on Oct 31, 2026 on the AAA California page or the AAA state averages page, is strictly above $8.50. If AAA hasn't updated that day, use its most recent value dated Oct 30 or Oct 31.
1 · AI resolver proposes
After Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM PT, the resolver agent reads the source, gathers evidence (links, quoted values, timestamps) and proposes Yes, No, or Void with its reasoning.
2 · Admin finalizes
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